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OCTOBER : PREPARATORY WORK AND A FREE CIRCULATORY COPY ONLY
For the day 13.10.2014 : Nifty projected High and low : 7951 – 7833 ( Bullish ) 7889 – 7769 ( Bearish )
On the Upside : Immediate and major resistance for nifty is now seen at 7886 – 7903 zone & this is a crucial level. Nifty spot has to trade above 7886 – 7903 level for some time at least & only on crossing this major hurdle on the upside and trade for 5 min and above Nifty can go on to test it’s crucial resistance level seen now at 7927 – 7951 level .
On the downside: immediate support seen for nifty is seen at 7835 – 7833 level and if nifty trades below this zone you can witness selling pressure emerging to test 7823 – 7802 and only breaking this vital support zone of 7800 levels is a sign of caution for the day. Breaking 7800 zone it will drag the index to test levels of 7784 – 7769 and 7750 cannot be ruled out also for the day .
Look for supply and demand zone on chart below clearly de marked in Red ( Red colour ) Green for demand areas & look for long term targets below
Candle pattern daily chart : The daily candle pattern is long Black day pattern ( Not significant )
For the conservative nifty trader see the levels below & trade: Stop is a must
For long on nifty spot / cash buy only above : 7886 level for a target of 7903 – 7914 – 7929 – 7956 – 7977 – 7999 with stop at 7956
For short on nifty spot /cash sell only below : 7833 level for targets of 7812 – 7804 – 7790 - 7763- 7742 – 7720 with a stop at 7863
Nifty future’s should at least trade 3 min and above to initiate trade’s
|NIFTY SPOT PIVOTS LEVEL FOR THE DAY 13.10.2014|
Relative strength of nifty hourly time frame is 40 and on Day chart 43 , volatility: 0.0089 movement :69 & Put call ratio seen at 0.00
Trade for the Day from the 13.10.2014 on wards only for professional swing traders and not for investment purpose
|Script name||last close||Stop loss||L- 1||Centre L-2||L- 3 COVER||L- 4 COVER||RSI||Reversal value|
|Buy here||Buy here||cover||cover|
Trade for the day 13.10.2014 : Click on the image to enlarge : BANK OF BARODA
Do not take up this trade without Hedging your stock
NIFTY CNX / SPOT : ROAD MAP AHEAD FROM 13.10.2014 ONWARDS
CNX NIFTY Road map ahead from 13.10.2014 onwards :
Nifty as previously cautioned in the earlier analysis found resistance at the said zone of 7978 and from thereon it traded in a downward trajectory to the said levels of 7854 and also tested 7824 and infact the trade whole week was range bound neither able to penetrate on the downside or the upside resistance zone.
Going forward : Nifty continues to move in the direction of the upward sloping trend line channel and the close is almost near to the lower trend line plotted in Green colour and for now the lower trendline level of 7802 – 7800 has to hold failing which we can witness a sell off from the said level.More important is at the base of 7823 level ( the bottom candle ) an Bullish Island reversal pattern was made which by itself is a very power full indicator of the strength or momentum to maintain the upside or Bullishness intact.Have enclosed a picture or chart of the same for your reference and this point is very crucial for the market.A failure to hold the level of 7823 / 7800 is a very clear indication that the Bears are here to stay and will have a vice like grip on the market and can lead to a catastrophic failure of the channel support and a serious possible downslide in the market cannot be ruled out.The first level to watch out than will be 7769 and this is a hint to the market that we will be very clearly sitting in a Bear territory.
What is the major resistance that Nifty has to conquer on the upside to say that we will resume the uptrend : Nifty has to break out of 7951 – 7972 with volumes and only on breaking out of this zone you can see the nifty heading higher to test levels of 8030 and from here on it will head higher to levels of 8155 – 8180 also.
Looking at technical oscillators : The RSI / Stochastic / composite /MACD are all not showing of any failure swings but at the same time are evenly poised for a big swing.The RSI is at 42 on Daily time frame and breaking 38 levels will be dangerous for the market.But for now it has not broken the range.
Moving averages : On the daily time frame the 13 Exponential moving average is poised at 7944 , Weekly much followed 5 EMA is at 8001 level and the price is below this EMA, The Wilders 20 Average is at 7928 and the price for now has breached the Wilders only for the Fourth time since Feb of 2014.
Overall view and Summary : The medium to long term the market is at its very critical support zone and if it can also break the Island reversal pattern and break the Lower trend line supports than we are here to see a catastrophic down slide and this two levels are 7823 and 7800 and so if you are on the long side than these two zones / levels are very important to be protected and your stop loss shall be just a few pips below the said level and look for higher targets as shown above.
What will the downside targets be : First sign the market is Bearish is it will test 7769 – 7733 and than the routine zig zag movements and can test 7550 also which cannot be ruled out with an intermediate target being 7683 – 7653
Weekly Pivot at : 7886 and Supports 1 : 7801 Support 2 : 7738 support 3 : 7653 Resistance seen at 1 : 7949 res 2 : 8035 res 3 : 8097
THE ISLAND REVERSAL PATTERN AS SPOTTED ON THE DAILY CHART : VERY CRITICAL AND WATCH THE LEVELS CAREFULLY
Study material on how to trade the moving averages below :
The two moving averages
I use two moving averages: the 10 period Exponential moving average (EMA) and the 30 period exponential moving average (EMA). I like to use a slower one and a faster one. Why? Because when the faster one (10) crosses over the slower one (30), it will often signal a trend change. Let’s look at an example below:
The Green coloured line is the 10 Ema & The Black coloured line is the 30 Ema
You can see in the chart above how these lines can help you define trends. On the left side of the chart the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA and the trend is up. The 10 EMA crosses down below the 30 EMA thereafter and the trend is down. Then, the 10 EMA crosses back up through the 30 EMA in September and the trend is up again – and it stays up for several months thereafter.
Here are the rules:
Focus on long positions only when the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA. Focus on short positions only when the 10 EMA is below the 30 EMA. It doesn’t get any simpler than that and it will ALWAYS keep you on the right side of the trend!
Note that moving averages only work well when a stock is trending – not when they are in a trading range. When a stock (or the market itself) becomes “sloppy” then you can ignore moving averages – they won’t work!
Here are the important things to remember (for long positions – reverse for short positions.):
- The 10 EMA must be above the 30 EMA.
- There must be plenty of space in between the moving averages.
- Both moving averages must be sloping upward.
- When the larger moving average which is sloping upward suddenly flatten’s and starts trending in the opposite direction is when you should become a bit cautious on the direction of the trend ( 30 Ema )
The 200 period moving average
The 200 SMA is used to separate bull territory from bear territory. Studies have shown that by focusing on long positions above this line and short positions below this line can give you a slight edge.
You should add this moving averages to all of your charts in all time frames.
The 200 SMA is the most important moving average to have on a stock chart. You will be surprised at how many times a stock will reverse in this area.
USE THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS TO SELECT TRADES OTHER THAN THE MOVING AVERAGES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirm it with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance:
Study material on how to trade Divergence : Price and momentum indicator the RSI: Relative strength index
Live calls will be posted during trading hours :
PARAMETERS USED TO SELECT TRADES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirmed with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance: nifty levels also precisely cross checked: moving averages cross over’s the golden and dead crosses : stochastic index : Volumes : Divergence
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