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DECEMBER : PREPARATORY WORK AND A FREE CIRCULATORY COPY ONLY
For the day 01.12.2014 : Nifty projected High and low : 8636 – 8535
On the Upside : Immediate and major resistance for nifty is now seen at 8602 zone & this is a crucial level. Nifty spot has to trade above 8602 level for some time at least & only on crossing this major hurdle on the upside and trade for 5 min and above Nifty can go on to test it’s crucial resistance level seen now at 8636 and 8640
On the downside: immediate support seen for nifty is seen at 8563 – 8556 level and if nifty trades below this zone you can witness selling pressure emerging to test 8535 and only breaking this vital support zone of 8535 the index can test 8500 and also 8591 and all these dips the smart money will buy
Look for Weekly update chart for more posted below
Candle pattern daily chart : The daily candle pattern is a inverted hammer pattern
For the conservative nifty trader see the levels below & trade: Stop is a must
For long on nifty spot / cash buy only above : 8613 level for a target of 8628 – 8639 – 8653 – 8678 – 8697 with stop at 8585
For short on nifty spot /cash sell only below : 8563 level for targets of 8543 – 8536 – 8522 - 8498 – 8478 with a stop at 8591
Nifty future’s should at least trade 3 min and above to initiate trade’s
|NIFTY SPOT PIVOTS LEVEL FOR THE WEEK 01.12.2014|
Relative strength of nifty hourly time frame is 63 and on Day chart 74 , volatility: 0.0087 movement :60 & Put call ratio seen at 0.00
Trade for the Day from the 01.12.2014 on wards only for professional swing traders and not for investment purpose
|Script name||last close||Stop loss||L- 1||Centre L-2||L- 3 COVER||L- 4 COVER||RSI||Reversal value|
|Buy here||Buy here||cover||cover|
NIFTY CNX Road map ahead from 01.12.2014 on wards :
NIFTY CNX Road map ahead from 01.12.2014 on wards :Nifty CNX as predicted in our previous weekly update did exactly as per the forecast and tested the level of 8540 and reversed to test the lower median line of 8429 zone and again made a very sharp recovery from the said level to head to the target zone of 8617 ( 8619 ) .Had clearly stated that the index is a buy on dips for the said target’s.
Going ahead : Nifty cnx will now face a severe hurdle at 8636 level and nifty has to make a close above this level strongly with volumes to head to it’s next higher levels of 8706 – 8736 and in order to keep the Bullish momentum intact failing which it can retest it’s strong support the fresh break-out zone of 8535 and 8500 level’s. 8491 is a classic support for the index for now and this level will provide a very good cushion and nifty once breaks out of 8636 it will head higher to test 8706 – 8736 zone first and next after a zig zag it will test 8762 – 8814 cannot be ruled out.At no point of time should the index breach 8429 on closing basis as the movement will turn Bearish.
Leading oscillators like the RSI / Stochastic / Composite have not shown any failure swing’s or Divergence and are trading at over bought zone and the overall range is seen as 8429 on the lower band and 8736 – 8762 – 8814 the upper band
Important : We have two key events to watch out for : First being the GDP Forecast and how well it will be accepted by the market maker’s and very important will be the monetary policy scheduled to announce it’s policy review on December 2.The RBI ,which has maintained the interest at elevated level and will it change it’s stance in favor of a rate -cut has to be watched very keenly.
Weekly Pivot is at 8541 and Resistance one to three is as 8653 – 8729 – 8841 and supports seen at 8465 – 8353 – 8278
NIFTY CNX Road map ahead from 24.11.2014 on wards :
Study material on how to trade the moving averages below :
The two moving averages
I use two moving averages: the 10 period Exponential moving average (EMA) and the 30 period exponential moving average (EMA). I like to use a slower one and a faster one. Why? Because when the faster one (10) crosses over the slower one (30), it will often signal a trend change. Let’s look at an example below:
The Green coloured line is the 10 Ema & The Black coloured line is the 30 Ema
You can see in the chart above how these lines can help you define trends. On the left side of the chart the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA and the trend is up. The 10 EMA crosses down below the 30 EMA thereafter and the trend is down. Then, the 10 EMA crosses back up through the 30 EMA in September and the trend is up again – and it stays up for several months thereafter.
Here are the rules:
Focus on long positions only when the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA. Focus on short positions only when the 10 EMA is below the 30 EMA. It doesn’t get any simpler than that and it will ALWAYS keep you on the right side of the trend!
Note that moving averages only work well when a stock is trending – not when they are in a trading range. When a stock (or the market itself) becomes “sloppy” then you can ignore moving averages – they won’t work!
Here are the important things to remember (for long positions – reverse for short positions.):
- The 10 EMA must be above the 30 EMA.
- There must be plenty of space in between the moving averages.
- Both moving averages must be sloping upward.
- When the larger moving average which is sloping upward suddenly flatten’s and starts trending in the opposite direction is when you should become a bit cautious on the direction of the trend ( 30 Ema )
The 200 period moving average
The 200 SMA is used to separate bull territory from bear territory. Studies have shown that by focusing on long positions above this line and short positions below this line can give you a slight edge.
You should add this moving averages to all of your charts in all time frames.
The 200 SMA is the most important moving average to have on a stock chart. You will be surprised at how many times a stock will reverse in this area.
USE THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS TO SELECT TRADES OTHER THAN THE MOVING AVERAGES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirm it with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance:
Study material on how to trade Divergence : Price and momentum indicator the RSI: Relative strength index
Live calls will be posted during trading hours :
PARAMETERS USED TO SELECT TRADES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirmed with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance: nifty levels also precisely cross checked: moving averages cross over’s the golden and dead crosses : stochastic index : Volumes : Divergence
The recommendations made herein or otherwise do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. No representations can be made that the recommendations contained herein or otherwise will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Readers using the information contained herein or otherwise are solely responsible for their actions. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The recommendations are based on the theory of Technical Analysis and do not reflect the fundamental validity of the Scrip.
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