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OCTOBER : PREPARATORY WORK AND A FREE CIRCULATORY COPY ONLY
For the day 27.10.2014 : Nifty projected High and low : 8031 – 7947
On the Upside : Immediate and major resistance for nifty is now seen at 8031 zone & this is a crucial level. Nifty spot has to trade above 8031 – 8041 level for some time at least & only on crossing this major hurdle on the upside and trade for 5 min and above Nifty can go on to test it’s crucial resistance level seen now at 8056
On the downside: immediate support seen for nifty is seen at 7988 – 7984 level and if nifty trades below this zone you can witness selling pressure emerging to test 7971 – 7968 and only breaking this vital support zone of 7968 levels is a sign of caution for the day. Breaking 7968 zone it will drag the index to test levels of 7950 and 7946 cannot be ruled out also for the day .
Look for Weekly update chart for more posted below
Candle pattern daily chart : The daily candle pattern is a Doji day ( 22.10.14 ) very significant
For the conservative nifty trader see the levels below & trade: Stop is a must
For long on nifty spot / cash buy only above : 8040 level for a target of 8056 – 8067 – 8081 – 8107 – 8127 – 8149 with stop at 8011
For short on nifty spot /cash sell only below : 7988 level for targets of 7968 – 7961 – 7947 - 7921- 7901 – 7879 with a stop at 8017
Nifty future’s should at least trade 3 min and above to initiate trade’s
|NIFTY SPOT PIVOTS LEVEL FOR THE DAY 27.10.2014|
Relative strength of nifty hourly time frame is 70 and on Day chart 54 , volatility: 0.0089 movement :67 & Put call ratio seen at 0.00
Trade for the Day from the 27.10.2014 on wards only for professional swing traders and not for investment purpose
|Script name||last close||Stop loss||L- 1||Centre L-2||L- 3 COVER||L- 4 COVER||RSI||Reversal value|
|Buy here||Buy here||cover||cover|
Positional traders only : 27.10.2014 Buy Kotak Bank with a long term view and look at a positional target of 1330 – 1400 in near term and time frame is 3 months and above.
The stop given below is deep just to keep out Noise from day to day observation. The stock has broken out of a Ascending Triangle and all set to make new highs.Please buy only 25 % of the intended quantity at the start and add more on dips. will update a smaller stop loss zone in the coming sessions.Go to the Archives page for follow up of the stock after a few sessions.1043 – 1020 are all buy zones for this stock
Attested a chart below for reference : Kotak Bank : Please click on the chart to enlarge the image
NIFTY CNX Road map ahead from 27.10.2014 on wards :27.10.2014
NIFTY : 20.10.14 : As posted on Facebook / Twitter : And chart posted on Blog via Twitter ( For reference )
NIFTY CNX 27.10.2014 onwards : Brief Summary :
Nifty as predicted in the previous weekly road map analysis dated 20.10.14 that we can fore see a strong pull back is on the cards from base to test first 7890 and also had clearly mentioned that a close above 7928 will propel Nifty to 8001 – 8060 levels and it did exactly that by closing at 8001 on the last trading day on 22.10.2014. ( Excluding Samavat trading nos ) : Going forward ?????
Going forward : Nifty after breaking the lower trendline support went on to test the crucial zone 7769 and than at 7733 which was the 100 DMA found support and than as had mentioned saw buying at lower levels to pull back very strongly to the said zones of 8001.Now to call this as a pull back only it can test 8036 – 8056 and also 8080 levels as per the Fibonacci retracement levels from the base of 7723 zone.As per the RSI to price movement a failure swing was seen at 60 level and can the RSI on daily time frame sustain above 60 – 62 where further observation can be made to say that the price and leading oscillator’s are not diverging but are working in tandom and we can rule out the price movement as just a pull back and than foresee a bigger rally ahead.For this to be clarified the Nifty has to close above 8095 – 8109 ( closing basis strictly ) to rule out that this was a mere pull back.
For now 8036 – 8056 are turning points for the market where you can witness heavy selling pressure coming into the market and the Bears can drag the index to first test 7928 zone and also 7850 levels and once this levels on the downside are broken the Bears are here to stay and look for deeper correction to set in in coming sessions as marked in the chart.
What is the major resistance that Nifty has to conquer on the upside to say that we will resume the uptrend : Nifty has to break out of 8056 – 64 levels and conquer 8083 – 8109 with very high volumes and only on breaking out of this zone you can say that the rally is not a retracement but than the rally is here to stay to test higher levels as marked in the chart.There is a sloping trend line at 8095 – 8109 which is a major hurdle for the index to clear now. Demarked in the chart in Red colour for reference.If the above said zone 8095 is conquered on closing basis than look for the higher levels as shown in the chart.
Looking at technical oscillators : The RSI / Stochastic / composite /MACD : The RSI for the first time since Feb of 2014 has showed a failure swing and also the stochastic oscillator has shown the same .Caution needs to be exercised at higher levels.
Moving averages : On the daily time frame the 13 Exponential moving average is poised at 7904 , Weekly much followed 5 EMA is at 7924 level and the Wilders 20 Average is at 7911 and the above 3 mentioned averages need to be closely monitored .
Overall view and Summary : Technically 8064 – 8088 is a very severe resistance for the market and only on closing basis if Nifty manages to close above 8095 a trend reversal is seen and nifty can go on to test higher levels as marked in the chart.Breaking 7928 on the lower side Nifty for now will test 7850 and a deep correction is seen in the next coming sessions.
RSI / PRICE : For reference i have posted a chart below marking the failure swing of the rsi / 27.10.14 Posted
Weekly Pivot at : 7952 and Supports 1 : 7900 Support 2 : 7804 support 3 : 7752 Resistance seen at 1 : 8048 res 2 : 8100 res 3 : 8196
Study material on how to trade the moving averages below :
The two moving averages
I use two moving averages: the 10 period Exponential moving average (EMA) and the 30 period exponential moving average (EMA). I like to use a slower one and a faster one. Why? Because when the faster one (10) crosses over the slower one (30), it will often signal a trend change. Let’s look at an example below:
The Green coloured line is the 10 Ema & The Black coloured line is the 30 Ema
You can see in the chart above how these lines can help you define trends. On the left side of the chart the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA and the trend is up. The 10 EMA crosses down below the 30 EMA thereafter and the trend is down. Then, the 10 EMA crosses back up through the 30 EMA in September and the trend is up again – and it stays up for several months thereafter.
Here are the rules:
Focus on long positions only when the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA. Focus on short positions only when the 10 EMA is below the 30 EMA. It doesn’t get any simpler than that and it will ALWAYS keep you on the right side of the trend!
Note that moving averages only work well when a stock is trending – not when they are in a trading range. When a stock (or the market itself) becomes “sloppy” then you can ignore moving averages – they won’t work!
Here are the important things to remember (for long positions – reverse for short positions.):
- The 10 EMA must be above the 30 EMA.
- There must be plenty of space in between the moving averages.
- Both moving averages must be sloping upward.
- When the larger moving average which is sloping upward suddenly flatten’s and starts trending in the opposite direction is when you should become a bit cautious on the direction of the trend ( 30 Ema )
The 200 period moving average
The 200 SMA is used to separate bull territory from bear territory. Studies have shown that by focusing on long positions above this line and short positions below this line can give you a slight edge.
You should add this moving averages to all of your charts in all time frames.
The 200 SMA is the most important moving average to have on a stock chart. You will be surprised at how many times a stock will reverse in this area.
USE THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS TO SELECT TRADES OTHER THAN THE MOVING AVERAGES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirm it with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance:
Study material on how to trade Divergence : Price and momentum indicator the RSI: Relative strength index
Live calls will be posted during trading hours :
PARAMETERS USED TO SELECT TRADES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirmed with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance: nifty levels also precisely cross checked: moving averages cross over’s the golden and dead crosses : stochastic index : Volumes : Divergence
The recommendations made herein or otherwise do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. No representations can be made that the recommendations contained herein or otherwise will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Readers using the information contained herein or otherwise are solely responsible for their actions. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The recommendations are based on the theory of Technical Analysis and do not reflect the fundamental validity of the Scrip.
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