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SEPTEMBER SERIES : PREPARATORY WORK AND A FREE CIRCULATORY COPY ONLY
For the day 02.09.2014 : Nifty projected High and low 8088 – 8027
On the Upside : Immediate and major resistance for nifty is now seen at 8050 zone & this is a crucial level.Nifty spot has to trade above 8050 level for some time at least & only on crossing this major hurdle on the upside and trade for 5 min and above can go on to test it’s crucial resistance level seen now at 8074 – 8088 You can witness selling pressure emerging at the above said levels.But trading for some time and strongly you can witness a short covering rally to higher levels in the coming sessions.
On the downside: immediate support seen for nifty is seen at 8027 level and next at 8003 only breaking this vital support zone Nifty can snap and drag the index down lower to test its crucial support @ 7996
Look for supply and demand zone on chart below clearly de marked in Red ( Red colour ) Green for demand areas & look for long term targets below
Candle pattern daily chart : The daily candle pattern is a inverted Hammer pattern.
For the conservative nifty trader see the levels below & trade: Stop is a must
For long on nifty spot / cash buy only above : 8051 level for a target of 8068 – 8074 – 8088 – 8111 – 8126 with stop at 8025
For short on nifty spot /cash sell only below : 8004 level for targets of 7986 – 7980 – 7966 - 7943 – 7925 with a stop at 8030
Nifty future’s should at least trade 3 min and above to initiate trade’s
|NIFTY SPOT PIVOTS LEVEL FOR THE DAY 02.09.2014|
Relative strength of nifty hourly time frame is 73 and on Day chart 70 , volatility: 0.0076 movement :61 & Put call ratio seen at 1.14
Trade for the Day from the 02.09.2014 on wards only for professional swing traders and not for investment purpose
|Script name||last close||Stop loss||L- 1||Centre L-2||L- 3 COVER||L- 4 COVER||RSI||Reversal value|
|Buy here||Buy here||cover||cover|
Trade for the Day from the 02.09.2014 on wards : Buy Icici Bank futures trading at 1610 level : Buy this stock futures with a stop below 1577 for targets of 1625 – 1641 and 1673 in 2- 3 sessions.
Trade for the Day from the 01.09.2014 onward:Buy Hindustan unilever trading at 742 level and look for targets of 758 – 774 : Positional traders who entered at 719 now maintain a stop below 728
Day traders look for targets of 751 – 758 with the same stop at 728
Study chart attested below : Click on the image to enlarge
CNX Nifty road map ahead : Weekly analysis from 01.09.2014 onward’s :
For previous charts click on the link Nifty archives : Click on the image to enlarge
Nifty as Forecast-ed in our previous weekly view analysis found exact resistance at the said zone of 7965 and after testing the level of 7968 reverted and corrected to lower levels of 7862 to make a smart recovery and close at levels of 7954.
Now going ahead : Nifty continues to move in the direction of the upward sloping trend channel :Long term ( plotted in Blue colour) and after very recently having tested its lower trend line level it bounced back and is again resuming it’s upward journey to test new high’s. Importance of the bounce at lower trend channel was it hit the exact channel support at 7540 and after forming a Island reversal pattern which is very bullish in it’s own right shows that the momentum is clear on the upside.It has also negated a divergence at top recently on the leading oscillators.
Now coming to the next week’s session Nifty once trades above 7973 level will head higher to test it’s near to short term resistance levels of 8000 – 8033 and after a brief consolidation and correction which should be bought into,will head higher to test the range of 8080 – 8100 and 8136 levels.You can witness selling pressure emerging at the above mentioned levels.
On the Other hand for now Nifty has formed a very good base support at 7900 – 7850 zone and as shown in the chart below the parallel green horizontal short term trend lines is also forming a convergence with the Upward sloping trend line at 7895 ( horizontal support ) and 7850 the Blue long term upward channel support zone. So only threatening the zone of 785o level and below a deep correction can set in. The base is well formed for the next leg up move until and unless this zone is tampered with repeatedly.
Looking at technical oscillators : The RSI / Stochastic / composite /MACD are all not showing of any failure swings and divergences and lately on the Rsi also a bearish divergence was negated.
Open Interest : 7900 PE has accumulated highest on the downside and 8200 CE has accumulated highest on the Upside which correlates with the chart structure also showing the Maximum pain zone seen at 8050 Levels for now.Maximum Pain zone is the area where selling can emerge and this zone has to be negated for higher targets for now. PCR seen at a healthy 1.24 with a bullish bias
Moving averages : On the daily time frame the 13 Exponential moving average is poised at 7861 and the 5 EMA and 10 EMA are poised at 7922 and 7882 Respectively which also are not indicating any dead crosses for now.Weekly much followed 5 EMA is at 7819
Overall view and Summary : The medium to long term the market is Bullish and the long term target which is not shown in the chart below is way high and be buyers of this market for the said targets with stops for positional traders at 7868 and for conservative traders the stops just below 7900 area.
Weekly Pivot at : 7928 and Supports 1 : 7888 Support 2 : 7822 Resistance seen at 1 : 7994 res 2 : 8034 res 3 : 8100
Study material on how to trade the moving averages below :
The two moving averages
I use two moving averages: the 10 period Exponential moving average (EMA) and the 30 period exponential moving average (EMA). I like to use a slower one and a faster one. Why? Because when the faster one (10) crosses over the slower one (30), it will often signal a trend change. Let’s look at an example below:
The Green coloured line is the 10 Ema & The Black coloured line is the 30 Ema
You can see in the chart above how these lines can help you define trends. On the left side of the chart the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA and the trend is up. The 10 EMA crosses down below the 30 EMA thereafter and the trend is down. Then, the 10 EMA crosses back up through the 30 EMA in September and the trend is up again – and it stays up for several months thereafter.
Here are the rules:
Focus on long positions only when the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA. Focus on short positions only when the 10 EMA is below the 30 EMA. It doesn’t get any simpler than that and it will ALWAYS keep you on the right side of the trend!
Note that moving averages only work well when a stock is trending – not when they are in a trading range. When a stock (or the market itself) becomes “sloppy” then you can ignore moving averages – they won’t work!
Here are the important things to remember (for long positions – reverse for short positions.):
- The 10 EMA must be above the 30 EMA.
- There must be plenty of space in between the moving averages.
- Both moving averages must be sloping upward.
- When the larger moving average which is sloping upward suddenly flatten’s and starts trending in the opposite direction is when you should become a bit cautious on the direction of the trend ( 30 Ema )
The 200 period moving average
The 200 SMA is used to separate bull territory from bear territory. Studies have shown that by focusing on long positions above this line and short positions below this line can give you a slight edge.
You should add this moving averages to all of your charts in all time frames.
The 200 SMA is the most important moving average to have on a stock chart. You will be surprised at how many times a stock will reverse in this area.
USE THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS TO SELECT TRADES OTHER THAN THE MOVING AVERAGES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirm it with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance:
Study material on how to trade Divergence : Price and momentum indicator the RSI: Relative strength index
Live calls will be posted during trading hours :
PARAMETERS USED TO SELECT TRADES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirmed with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance: nifty levels also precisely cross checked: moving averages cross over’s the golden and dead crosses : stochastic index : Volumes : Divergence
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