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SEPTEMBER SERIES : PREPARATORY WORK AND A FREE CIRCULATORY COPY ONLY
For the day 19.09.2014 : Nifty projected High and low 8180 /8222 – 8081
On the Upside : Immediate and major resistance for nifty is now seen at 8133 – 8139 zone & this is a crucial level. Nifty spot has to trade above 8140 level for some time at least & only on crossing this major hurdle on the upside and trade for 5 min and above Nifty can go on to test it’s crucial resistance level seen now at 8161. Only Trading above 8161 You can witness a short covering rally to test it previous high levels of 8180 and 8222 cannot be ruled out for the day.
On the downside: immediate support seen for nifty is seen at 8091 -8086 level and if nifty trades below this zone you can witness selling pressure emerging to test 8060 and only breaking this vital support zone of 8060 and 8049 levels. But all the dips will be bought into by the smart money. Please check the weekly chart for the break out and turning zones.
Look for supply and demand zone on chart below clearly de marked in Red ( Red colour ) Green for demand areas & look for long term targets below
Candle pattern daily chart : The daily candle pattern is a Long white day candle pattern
For the conservative nifty trader see the levels below & trade: Stop is a must
For long on nifty spot / cash buy only above : 8139 level for a target of 8155 – 8166 – 8180 – 8205 – 8225 with stop at 8111
For short on nifty spot /cash sell only below : 8089 level for targets of 8069 – 8063 – 8049 - 8023- 8004 with a stop at 8117
Nifty future’s should at least trade 3 min and above to initiate trade’s
|NIFTY SPOT PIVOTS LEVEL FOR THE DAY 19.09.2014|
Relative strength of nifty hourly time frame is 68 and on Day chart 61 , volatility: 0.0081 movement :65 & Put call ratio seen at 0.00
Trade for the Day from the 19.09.2014 on wards only for professional swing traders and not for investment purpose
|Script name||last close||Stop loss||L- 1||Centre L-2||L- 3 COVER||L- 4 COVER||RSI||Reversal value|
|Buy here||Buy here||cover||cover|
Trade for the day 19.09.2014 : Buy Bajaj Auto futures trading at 2403 with a stop at 2370 and trade for targets of 2446 – 2485
Trade for the day 19.09.2014 : Buy ICICI Bank futures trading at 1567 and maintain a stop at 1544 and look for targets of 1584 – 1600 – 1629
NIFTY CNX ROAD MAP AHEAD FROM 15.09.2014 : CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE
NIFTY CNX ROAD MAP AHEAD FROM 15.09.14 ONWARDS:
Nifty spot as per technical analysis is trading in a very tight range and the range is very congested
with 8133 – 8154 being very strong resistance zone on the up side and a very strong support seen at
lower band of 8057 – 8050 on the lower side.
Going ahead in the next week this tight range has to be broken to give a clear direction on to which
side the Index will move. The range is clearly demarked in the chart attested below for reference and
is marked in red colour horizontal box shape. The overall range play seen for the coming week is
seen as 8212 – 8254 only on conquering the constraint zone of 8133 – 54 on the upside and 8021 –
8019 and also 7989 – 7969 on the downside and downside only on breaching the level of 8049. The
index will trade in a support and resistance zone before it breaks out on either side. The smart
money will buy any such dips to lower levels and will be sellers at higher levels and this range will be
used for sector rotation / accumulation and distribution process and also will be used by Option
writers who will come to play very systematically from the week ahead. The zones are well defined
on either side.
Coming to open interest the 8000 PE has the highest strikes and 8300 CE has the highest strikes
where the maximum pain zone is seen at 8150 level and this correlates to the chart structure. The
VIX (India ) is at its lowest point at 12.34 range and for now does not seem to bother the Index and
chances of VIX rising will be 13.47 maximum and this also correlates to the chart structure which
clearly defines the Bulls are in a very safe zone for now. With India VIX trading at its lowest level
Option premiums will be at the lowest level and as expiry approaches very soon this month most of
the premiums will be worthless in about 3 to 4 trading sessions as the 8000 level is very well
protected on downside. Advice is not to be too bearish and assume lower levels which are not
realistic and also not to be overtly Bullish as the smart money are trading very cleverly deploying
funds at appropriate levels as the volume indicators suggest. VIX has dropped from levels of 39.30
on 16.05.14 to 12.34 on Friday the 11.09.14 (Fear index or volatility index ) Bull’s are shorting the
Put side as soon as the premium rises and this clearly shows absolute disdain and scant respect for
the Bear camp.
Leading oscillators like the RSI / Stochastic indicator / Composite are all at over bought zone but no
failure swings seen at the upside or any Divergence detected for now.
Moving averages : On the Daily time frame the 13 EMA is at 8054 level and on the Weekly time
frame the 5 EMA is at 7974 and no Dead crosses seen for now.
Weekly PIvot is at 8115 level with support 1 and 2 at 8050 – 7992 respectively and resistance 1 and 2
at 8173 – 8238. This also co relates to the chart and the trend lines as depicted in chart in Dark green
View: Be buyers at lower levels and sellers at higher levels till such time a break out or a break down
is seen. The reason for me to stress on the VIX indicator is if you are amateurs in option trading this
is not the time to venture into Options as the professionals will take over in the next sessions and till
such time a clear direction is not seen stay out of the market. Just a word of caution
INDIA VIX INDICATOR CHART STUDY : As on 15.09.2014
PURE PRICE ACTION TO VOLUMES INDICATORS : Updated on 14.09.2014
Study material on how to trade the moving averages below :
The two moving averages
I use two moving averages: the 10 period Exponential moving average (EMA) and the 30 period exponential moving average (EMA). I like to use a slower one and a faster one. Why? Because when the faster one (10) crosses over the slower one (30), it will often signal a trend change. Let’s look at an example below:
The Green coloured line is the 10 Ema & The Black coloured line is the 30 Ema
You can see in the chart above how these lines can help you define trends. On the left side of the chart the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA and the trend is up. The 10 EMA crosses down below the 30 EMA thereafter and the trend is down. Then, the 10 EMA crosses back up through the 30 EMA in September and the trend is up again – and it stays up for several months thereafter.
Here are the rules:
Focus on long positions only when the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA. Focus on short positions only when the 10 EMA is below the 30 EMA. It doesn’t get any simpler than that and it will ALWAYS keep you on the right side of the trend!
Note that moving averages only work well when a stock is trending – not when they are in a trading range. When a stock (or the market itself) becomes “sloppy” then you can ignore moving averages – they won’t work!
Here are the important things to remember (for long positions – reverse for short positions.):
- The 10 EMA must be above the 30 EMA.
- There must be plenty of space in between the moving averages.
- Both moving averages must be sloping upward.
- When the larger moving average which is sloping upward suddenly flatten’s and starts trending in the opposite direction is when you should become a bit cautious on the direction of the trend ( 30 Ema )
The 200 period moving average
The 200 SMA is used to separate bull territory from bear territory. Studies have shown that by focusing on long positions above this line and short positions below this line can give you a slight edge.
You should add this moving averages to all of your charts in all time frames.
The 200 SMA is the most important moving average to have on a stock chart. You will be surprised at how many times a stock will reverse in this area.
USE THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS TO SELECT TRADES OTHER THAN THE MOVING AVERAGES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirm it with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance:
Study material on how to trade Divergence : Price and momentum indicator the RSI: Relative strength index
Live calls will be posted during trading hours :
PARAMETERS USED TO SELECT TRADES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirmed with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance: nifty levels also precisely cross checked: moving averages cross over’s the golden and dead crosses : stochastic index : Volumes : Divergence
The recommendations made herein or otherwise do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. No representations can be made that the recommendations contained herein or otherwise will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Readers using the information contained herein or otherwise are solely responsible for their actions. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The recommendations are based on the theory of Technical Analysis and do not reflect the fundamental validity of the Scrip.
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