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NOVEMBER : PREPARATORY WORK AND A FREE CIRCULATORY COPY ONLY
For the day 24.11.2014 : Nifty projected High and low : 8519 – 8455
On the Upside : Immediate and major resistance for nifty is now seen at 8490 zone & this is a crucial level. Nifty spot has to trade above 8490 – 8500 level for some time at least & only on crossing this major hurdle on the upside and trade for 5 min and above Nifty can go on to test it’s crucial resistance level seen now at 8506 – 8519
On the downside: immediate support seen for nifty is seen at 8455 level and if nifty trades below this zone you can witness selling pressure emerging to test 8436 – 8433 and only breaking this vital support zone of 8433 the index can test 8404 levels
Look for Weekly update chart for more posted below
Candle pattern daily chart : The daily candle pattern is a white body candle pattern
For the conservative nifty trader see the levels below & trade: Stop is a must
For long on nifty spot / cash buy only above : 8499 level for a target of 8514 – 8523 – 8536 – 8559 – 8577 with stop at 8474
For short on nifty spot /cash sell only below : 8454 level for targets of 8436 – 8430 – 8418 - 8395 – 8377 with a stop at 8480
Nifty future’s should at least trade 3 min and above to initiate trade’s
|NIFTY SPOT PIVOTS LEVEL FOR THE WEEK 24.11.2014|
Relative strength of nifty hourly time frame is 64 and on Day chart 73 , volatility: 0.0087 movement :60 & Put call ratio seen at 0.00
Trade for the Day from the 24.10.2014 on wards only for professional swing traders and not for investment purpose
|Script name||last close||Stop loss||L- 1||Centre L-2||L- 3 COVER||L- 4 COVER||RSI||Reversal value|
|Buy here||Buy here||cover||cover|
Trade for the day 24.11.2014 : will update
For Positional traders the Charts of Lupin ,Ranbaxy,Kotak Bank please click on the Archives link for further updates on these trades.
Bank of Baroda : Call closed as our positional target is achieved : See in archives page for the chart.
Kotak Bank : Target of 1250 achieved as on 21.11.2014 : see in archives page for the chart
NIFTY CNX Road map ahead from 24.11.2014 on wards :
NIFTY CNX Road map ahead from 24.11.2014 on wards :Nifty cnx as predicted in our previous weekly update did exactly as per the forecast and tested the level of 8489 .Had clearly stated that the index is a buy on dips for the said target’s.
Going ahead : Nifty cnx will now face a severe hurdle at its long term Fibonacci extension zone of 161.8 % poised at 8540 level and nifty has to make a close above this level strongly with volumes to head to it’s next higher levels of 8619 in order to keep the Bullish momentum intact or else failing which the index can start to drift in a sideway’s to negative mode for a long time before any direction of trade can set in.But if any such dips arise the smart money will be buyers.Very good support for the Index is seen at 8405 and next at 8327 level.Index should not breach 8319 zone as the momentum can change.
Leading oscillators like the RSI / Stochastic / Composite have not shown any failure swing’s or Divergence and are trading at over bought zone.I would advice to stay cautious at the levels of 8540 and 8619 zone as here you can witness selling pressure emerging or can be termed as accumulation and distribution process.
Weekly Pivot with supports and resistance are as from 24.11.2014 : Pivot point : 8436 Resistance 1 to 3 are as 8523 – 8577 – 8664 with support 1 to 3 as 8323 – 8295 – 8242
NIFTY CNX Road map ahead from 10.11.2014 on wards :
Nifty road map ahead from 10.11.2014 onwards : Please do check the previous weekly update for reference :
Going ahead Nifty cnx has a trendline resistance seen at 8356 zone and trading above 8356 – 8364 nifty will breakout on the upside to test the levels of 8412 – 8468 zone and can than start to trade in a side ways mode.The index is trading in a Bull territory and any dips to lower levels should be bought into.Please do not treat it as a sell -off but treat this as correction only as Nifty has got very good supports at the lower median trend line seen at 8222 – 8211 zone .I have plotted an Andrew’s Pitch fork line study chart which i have updated below for your reference and the lower trendline support of 8211 – 8222 and the Pitch fork line Co-relate. The leading indicators like the RSI / Stochastic /Composite are at overbought zone but no Failure swings or Divergence is detected as of now and the price action to oscillators are moving in Tandem.
The trend is on the upside and Bullish and be buyers of this index on any dips
Weekly Pivot : 8332 and Resistance seen at 8375 – 8408 – 8450 with Support 1 to 3 seen at 8299 – 8257 – 8224
Andrew’s Pitchfork analysis on Nifty CNX below for reference : 10.11.14
Study material on how to trade the moving averages below :
The two moving averages
I use two moving averages: the 10 period Exponential moving average (EMA) and the 30 period exponential moving average (EMA). I like to use a slower one and a faster one. Why? Because when the faster one (10) crosses over the slower one (30), it will often signal a trend change. Let’s look at an example below:
The Green coloured line is the 10 Ema & The Black coloured line is the 30 Ema
You can see in the chart above how these lines can help you define trends. On the left side of the chart the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA and the trend is up. The 10 EMA crosses down below the 30 EMA thereafter and the trend is down. Then, the 10 EMA crosses back up through the 30 EMA in September and the trend is up again – and it stays up for several months thereafter.
Here are the rules:
Focus on long positions only when the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA. Focus on short positions only when the 10 EMA is below the 30 EMA. It doesn’t get any simpler than that and it will ALWAYS keep you on the right side of the trend!
Note that moving averages only work well when a stock is trending – not when they are in a trading range. When a stock (or the market itself) becomes “sloppy” then you can ignore moving averages – they won’t work!
Here are the important things to remember (for long positions – reverse for short positions.):
- The 10 EMA must be above the 30 EMA.
- There must be plenty of space in between the moving averages.
- Both moving averages must be sloping upward.
- When the larger moving average which is sloping upward suddenly flatten’s and starts trending in the opposite direction is when you should become a bit cautious on the direction of the trend ( 30 Ema )
The 200 period moving average
The 200 SMA is used to separate bull territory from bear territory. Studies have shown that by focusing on long positions above this line and short positions below this line can give you a slight edge.
You should add this moving averages to all of your charts in all time frames.
The 200 SMA is the most important moving average to have on a stock chart. You will be surprised at how many times a stock will reverse in this area.
USE THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS TO SELECT TRADES OTHER THAN THE MOVING AVERAGES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirm it with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance:
Study material on how to trade Divergence : Price and momentum indicator the RSI: Relative strength index
Live calls will be posted during trading hours :
PARAMETERS USED TO SELECT TRADES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirmed with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance: nifty levels also precisely cross checked: moving averages cross over’s the golden and dead crosses : stochastic index : Volumes : Divergence
The recommendations made herein or otherwise do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. No representations can be made that the recommendations contained herein or otherwise will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Readers using the information contained herein or otherwise are solely responsible for their actions. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The recommendations are based on the theory of Technical Analysis and do not reflect the fundamental validity of the Scrip.
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