TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BLOG
IF YOU FAIL TO PLAN YOU PLAN TO FAIL
All you need is a plan,the road map,and the courage to press on your destination.
MARCH : PREPARATORY WORK AND A FREE CIRCULATORY COPY ONLY
IMPORTANT : THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA PLEASE CORRECT IT TO 8836 – 8800 FOR 2.3.15 CHART ( Typo error )
How did the trade happen from 13.01.2015 to 30.012015 and how a Symmetrical triangle break-out was spotted and and the same time how caution had to be exercised at the change in trend zones .The charts are put together in chronological order and look at the charts below for reference.Yes Technical analysis work’s But you need to chalk out a plan and do your homework well in advance to catch these deceptive moves well in advance : ” You fail to plan ! ! you plan to fail “
Now look at the previous charts for your reference : Click on the image to enlarge picture
Please click on the chart to enlarge image
NIFTY CNX : SNAP SHOT FOR THE WEEK AHEAD FROM 19.01.2015
NIFTY CNX SNAP SHOT AS ON 13.1.15
NIFTY SNAP SHOT AS ON 13.01.15 : A symmetrical triangle formation is seen in the daily chart . 8373 – 8402 IS UPPER resistance and trendline zone and 8250 and 8062 is the lower trendline zone.Nifty has to break with very high volumes for a direction to be determined or else it will start to trade within the TL and than a vicious break is seen. A lull before the storm so trade cautiously.It can wipe away a Bear or a Bull
Study material on how to trade the moving averages below :
The two moving averages
I use two moving averages: the 10 period Exponential moving average (EMA) and the 30 period exponential moving average (EMA). I like to use a slower one and a faster one. Why? Because when the faster one (10) crosses over the slower one (30), it will often signal a trend change. Let’s look at an example below:
The Green coloured line is the 10 Ema & The Black coloured line is the 30 Ema
You can see in the chart above how these lines can help you define trends. On the left side of the chart the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA and the trend is up. The 10 EMA crosses down below the 30 EMA thereafter and the trend is down. Then, the 10 EMA crosses back up through the 30 EMA in September and the trend is up again – and it stays up for several months thereafter.
Here are the rules:
Focus on long positions only when the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA. Focus on short positions only when the 10 EMA is below the 30 EMA. It doesn’t get any simpler than that and it will ALWAYS keep you on the right side of the trend!
Note that moving averages only work well when a stock is trending – not when they are in a trading range. When a stock (or the market itself) becomes “sloppy” then you can ignore moving averages – they won’t work!
Here are the important things to remember (for long positions – reverse for short positions.):
- The 10 EMA must be above the 30 EMA.
- There must be plenty of space in between the moving averages.
- Both moving averages must be sloping upward.
- When the larger moving average which is sloping upward suddenly flatten’s and starts trending in the opposite direction is when you should become a bit cautious on the direction of the trend ( 30 Ema )
The 200 period moving average
The 200 SMA is used to separate bull territory from bear territory. Studies have shown that by focusing on long positions above this line and short positions below this line can give you a slight edge.
You should add this moving averages to all of your charts in all time frames.
The 200 SMA is the most important moving average to have on a stock chart. You will be surprised at how many times a stock will reverse in this area.
USE THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS TO SELECT TRADES OTHER THAN THE MOVING AVERAGES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirm it with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance:
Study material on how to trade Divergence : Price and momentum indicator the RSI: Relative strength index
Live calls will be posted during trading hours :
PARAMETERS USED TO SELECT TRADES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirmed with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance: nifty levels also precisely cross checked: moving averages cross over’s the golden and dead crosses : stochastic index : Volumes : Divergence
The recommendations made herein or otherwise do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. No representations can be made that the recommendations contained herein or otherwise will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Readers using the information contained herein or otherwise are solely responsible for their actions. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The recommendations are based on the theory of Technical Analysis and do not reflect the fundamental validity of the Scrip.
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