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JANUARY SERIES : PREPARATORY WORK AND A FREE CIRCULATORY COPY ONLY
NIFTY FUTURES : What to expect tomorrow : 03.03.2014 Nifty future’s projected High and Low 6338 – 6287
On the Upside : Immediate and major resistance for nifty future is now seen at 6309 zone & this is a crucial level.Nifty futures has to trade above 6309 level & only on crossing this major hurdle on the upside and trade for some time can go on to test levels of 6354. The bears will start to nibble around at the said zones or at this above mentioned zones and will again start pouncing to sell .But trading above 6354 – 69 only you can witness a short covering rally on the upside. Very important : Be buyers of this market only on a close above 6369 and 6408 levels ( strictly on closing basis ) for an upmove . The chart structure is a symmetrical triangle formation and always be buyers only on the demand zone areas.The index is approaching a very crucial supply zone and needs strong hands to take it to a higher level.
On the downside: immediate support seen for nifty futures is seen at 6270 level and on breaking this support can snap and drag the index down lower to test 6250 zone . Below this zone the nifty futures will snap and will start Threatening to test zones below 6270 – 69 and once this zones are conquered will create panic in the market as it is not a healthy sign as nifty futures can start to test lower levels of 6250 zone also. 6221 should be protected by the Bulls in order to maintain the upward direction.
Look for supply and demand zone on chart below clearly demarked in red ( supply zone or sellers area ) Blue for demand areas
Candle pattern daily chart : The daily candle pattern is a small white day candle pattern.
For the conservative nifty trader see the levels below & trade: Stop is a must
For long on nifty futures buy only above : 6308 level for a target of 6318 – 6326 – 6336 – 6354 – 6369 with a stop at level 6288
For short on nifty futures sell only below : 6271 level for targets 6259 – 6251 – 6241 - 6224 – 6209 with a stop at 6290
Nifty future’s should at least trade 3 min and above to initiate trade’s
|NIFTY FUTURES PIVOTS LEVEL FOR THE DAY 03.03.2013|
Relative strength of nifty hourly time frame is 75 and on Day chart 63 , volatility: 0.0092 movement :47 & Put call ratio seen at 0.92 & _ ve to a range bound session seen.
Trade for the Day from the 21.01.2013 onwards only for professional swing traders and not for investment purpose
|Script name||last close||Stop loss||L- 1||Centre L-2||L- 3 COVER||L- 4 COVER||RSI||Reversal value|
|Buy here||Buy here||cover||cover|
For previous trades click on the above link Nifty Archives and check for trade levels :
Trade for the day : 03.03.2014 :
With deepest sadness let me share with you all the news of the passing away of my Brother-in-law ( My sister’s husband and then my uncle ( Father’s brother) and also a very dear friend and all this happened in quick succession during the last 30 days. Experiencing death in the family and close friend or a close circle was very emotional and upsetting experience for me. In addition to grieving there were also other important tasks that were to be completed. I am so sorry that i could not respond to many messages and please do pardon me for the same as i was unable to connect during this testing times. Will only update on regular basis in a week’s time and untill than please bear the inconvenience caused.
Nifty futures road map ahead ; Chart update (Fresh update ) from 03.03.2014 onwards: Click on the below image to enlarge.
Nifty futures road map ahead from 03.03.2014 onwards :
After taking support at the base line of 5957, the index moved towards the upper side of its price channel, and has almost tested the upper resistance trend line seen at 6309 ( strong resistance zone ) Traders should watch for the resistance trend line level @ 6309 .The said level of 6354 -69 is very critical to know the next move ( crucial ) Looking at technical indicators, the RSI remains precariously poised @ zone with a reading of 62 while the MACD recently is experiencing an overbought sign & trended sideways on daily time frame & looking for a signal from the weekly time frame which is all set to make a major move & that could signal the next leg ahead and the stochastic oscillator is at the overbought zone and also on the verge of making a _ negative divergence on daily time frame
Overall view : Stiff resistance seen at 6309 – 6354 & major level 6369 levels and can witness selling emerging at the above levels of and good downside support seen at 6228 – 6215 zone and breaking this zone only will test levels of 6167 – 6144 at 6100 levels. You can witness an abrupt halt to this not so convincing rally at the said supply zones of 6309 – 6354 and 6369-6408
Volatility: Coming to the Bollinger bands you can see the topside band in an upward direction and the lower band flat suggesting that it is a channel play & not very convincing rally as the volatility is very less sideways movement can be witnessed. Walk the bands will be a good traders call.
Look for supply and demand zone on chart below clearly demarked in red ( supply zone or sellers area ) Blue for demand areas and also be very cautious in monitoring the RSI,MACD,Stochastic indicators along with the all important volume detectors before you initiate action.
View: Will only be a buyer of this market if nifty futures trades above 6369 – 6408 ( strictly on closing basis only ) .Will be a seller of this market at higher levels with stops above 6369 and also 6409 strictly. (Selling at higher levels and positional stop to be at 6409 level strictly for positional players).Study Chart attested below
Study material on how to trade the moving averages below :
The two moving averages
I use two moving averages: the 10 period Exponential moving average (EMA) and the 30 period exponential moving average (EMA). I like to use a slower one and a faster one. Why? Because when the faster one (10) crosses over the slower one (30), it will often signal a trend change. Let’s look at an example below:
The Green coloured line is the 10 Ema & The Black coloured line is the 30 Ema
You can see in the chart above how these lines can help you define trends. On the left side of the chart the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA and the trend is up. The 10 EMA crosses down below the 30 EMA thereafter and the trend is down. Then, the 10 EMA crosses back up through the 30 EMA in September and the trend is up again – and it stays up for several months thereafter.
Here are the rules:
Focus on long positions only when the 10 EMA is above the 30 EMA. Focus on short positions only when the 10 EMA is below the 30 EMA. It doesn’t get any simpler than that and it will ALWAYS keep you on the right side of the trend!
Note that moving averages only work well when a stock is trending – not when they are in a trading range. When a stock (or the market itself) becomes “sloppy” then you can ignore moving averages – they won’t work!
Here are the important things to remember (for long positions – reverse for short positions.):
- The 10 EMA must be above the 30 EMA.
- There must be plenty of space in between the moving averages.
- Both moving averages must be sloping upward.
- When the larger moving average which is sloping upward suddenly flatten’s and starts trending in the opposite direction is when you should become a bit cautious on the direction of the trend ( 30 Ema )
The 200 period moving average
The 200 SMA is used to separate bull territory from bear territory. Studies have shown that by focusing on long positions above this line and short positions below this line can give you a slight edge.
You should add this moving averages to all of your charts in all time frames.
The 200 SMA is the most important moving average to have on a stock chart. You will be surprised at how many times a stock will reverse in this area.
USE THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS TO SELECT TRADES OTHER THAN THE MOVING AVERAGES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirm it with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance:
Live calls will be posted during trading hours :
PARAMETERS USED TO SELECT TRADES : Relative strength index: macd : highs and lows: bearish and bullish divergence: last daily candle : reconfirmed with commodity channel index and composite index: break out levels: pivot’s with aide of supports and resistance: nifty levels also precisely cross checked: moving averages cross over’s the golden and dead crosses : stochastic index : Volumes : Divergence
The recommendations made herein or otherwise do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. No representations can be made that the recommendations contained herein or otherwise will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Readers using the information contained herein or otherwise are solely responsible for their actions. Information is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The recommendations are based on the theory of Technical Analysis and do not reflect the fundamental validity of the Scrip.
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